CHDNChurchill Downs Inc— fair value (DCF model)
A deterministic two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) estimate of this company's per-share fair value, and how far it sits above or below the current share price — with the full assumptions, a growth×discount sensitivity grid and the methodology. Every figure is engine-computed from SEC filings, delayed prices and the 10-year Treasury yield, with no LLM. This is a model estimate under disclosed assumptions, not a price target, forecast or investment advice.
The model estimates $189.37 per share — 93.0% above the current price of $98.14.
A deterministic model estimate under the disclosed assumptions (two-stage DCF over as-reported SEC figures; CAPM discount off the 10Y Treasury). NOT a price target, forecast, or investment advice — the sensitivity grid shows how the estimate moves as assumptions change.
Free-cash-flow DCF
The model estimates $189.37 per share — 93.0% above the current price of $98.14.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $565.1M |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 12.2% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 12.2% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.9% + β 0.93 × 5.0% = 9.5% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $183.29 | $167.77 | $154.64 | $143.39 | $133.63 |
| −2.5pp | $203.35 | $185.94 | $171.21 | $158.59 | $147.65 |
| base | $225.36 | $205.87 | $189.37 | $175.24 | $163.01 |
| +2.5pp | $249.49 | $227.69 | $209.25 | $193.46 | $179.79 |
| +5pp | $275.90 | $251.57 | $230.99 | $213.38 | $198.13 |
Earnings (net-income) DCF
The model estimates $144.03 per share — 46.8% above the current price of $98.14.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $383.0M |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 15.1% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 15.1% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.9% + β 0.93 × 5.0% = 9.5% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $140.05 | $128.04 | $117.88 | $109.18 | $101.63 |
| −2.5pp | $155.19 | $141.74 | $130.37 | $120.62 | $112.18 |
| base | $171.77 | $156.74 | $144.03 | $133.14 | $123.72 |
| +2.5pp | $189.92 | $173.15 | $158.97 | $146.83 | $136.32 |
| +5pp | $209.02 | $190.40 | $174.67 | $161.20 | $149.54 |
Model computed 2026-11-05 · Source: SEC XBRL filings + delayed price + 10Y Treasury yield · For reference only · Not investment advice
How the model works
- Two-stage DCF. Stage 1 projects ten explicit years of cash flow; stage 2 caps it with a Gordon terminal value. The model runs two variants — one over free cash flow, one over earnings (net income) — whenever each is computable.
- Dollar-level projection ÷ current shares. The company-level dollar series is projected and divided by the current share count once at the end. Dollar totals are split-immune, whereas a per-share history mixes pre/post-split bases.
- Linear growth decay. Stage-1 growth starts at the historical CAGR of the base series (clamped into 0%–20%; the raw CAGR is still disclosed) and decays linearly to the terminal rate.
- Gordon terminal growth = min(10-year Treasury yield, 3%). A company cannot outgrow the economy forever; the discount rate must clear the terminal rate by a minimum spread or the value is undefined.
- CAPM discount rate = 10-year Treasury + beta × equity-risk premium (5%). Beta is clamped into 0.6–2.0 (a degenerate regression beta destabilises the model); an unknown beta defaults to 1.0. Every clamp/default is disclosed.
- Honesty gates (absent, never fabricated): at least four annual points with positive first/last values to anchor a CAGR; banks, insurers and REITs are out of model scope (an FCF/earnings DCF structurally misfits their economics); and a result outside 1/8×–8× of the current price is withheld — the assumptions do not fit that business, so no number is shown.
- Sensitivity, not a single oracle number. A 5×5 grid over (growth-start offset × discount offset) shows how the estimate moves as the two key assumptions change — the honest presentation of model uncertainty.
This page is a deterministic model estimate under disclosed assumptions — not a price target, forecast or investment advice. Source: SEC XBRL filings, delayed prices and US Treasury yields; for reference only.