CMICUMMINS INC— fair value (DCF model)
A deterministic two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) estimate of this company's per-share fair value, and how far it sits above or below the current share price — with the full assumptions, a growth×discount sensitivity grid and the methodology. Every figure is engine-computed from SEC filings, delayed prices and the 10-year Treasury yield, with no LLM. This is a model estimate under disclosed assumptions, not a price target, forecast or investment advice.
The model estimates $302.64 per share — 50.3% below the current price of $608.50.
A deterministic model estimate under the disclosed assumptions (two-stage DCF over as-reported SEC figures; CAPM discount off the 10Y Treasury). NOT a price target, forecast, or investment advice — the sensitivity grid shows how the estimate moves as assumptions change.
Free-cash-flow DCF
The model estimates $302.64 per share — 50.3% below the current price of $608.50.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $2.4B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 6.0% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 6.0% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.6% + β 1.01 × 5.0% = 9.7% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $288.97 | $265.80 | $246.09 | $229.13 | $214.38 |
| −2.5pp | $321.36 | $295.24 | $273.04 | $253.94 | $237.33 |
| base | $356.99 | $327.61 | $302.64 | $281.17 | $262.50 |
| +2.5pp | $396.15 | $363.15 | $335.13 | $311.03 | $290.09 |
| +5pp | $439.13 | $402.15 | $370.74 | $343.75 | $320.30 |
Earnings (net-income) DCF
The model estimates $409.54 per share — 32.7% below the current price of $608.50.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $3.0B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 8.2% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 8.2% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.6% + β 1.01 × 5.0% = 9.7% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $392.48 | $360.64 | $333.57 | $310.28 | $290.03 |
| −2.5pp | $436.07 | $400.24 | $369.79 | $343.60 | $320.84 |
| base | $483.97 | $443.73 | $409.54 | $380.15 | $354.60 |
| +2.5pp | $536.56 | $491.44 | $453.13 | $420.19 | $391.58 |
| +5pp | $594.22 | $543.73 | $500.86 | $464.02 | $432.03 |
Model computed 2026-07-29 · Source: SEC XBRL filings + delayed price + 10Y Treasury yield · For reference only · Not investment advice
How the model works
- Two-stage DCF. Stage 1 projects ten explicit years of cash flow; stage 2 caps it with a Gordon terminal value. The model runs two variants — one over free cash flow, one over earnings (net income) — whenever each is computable.
- Dollar-level projection ÷ current shares. The company-level dollar series is projected and divided by the current share count once at the end. Dollar totals are split-immune, whereas a per-share history mixes pre/post-split bases.
- Linear growth decay. Stage-1 growth starts at the historical CAGR of the base series (clamped into 0%–20%; the raw CAGR is still disclosed) and decays linearly to the terminal rate.
- Gordon terminal growth = min(10-year Treasury yield, 3%). A company cannot outgrow the economy forever; the discount rate must clear the terminal rate by a minimum spread or the value is undefined.
- CAPM discount rate = 10-year Treasury + beta × equity-risk premium (5%). Beta is clamped into 0.6–2.0 (a degenerate regression beta destabilises the model); an unknown beta defaults to 1.0. Every clamp/default is disclosed.
- Honesty gates (absent, never fabricated): at least four annual points with positive first/last values to anchor a CAGR; banks, insurers and REITs are out of model scope (an FCF/earnings DCF structurally misfits their economics); and a result outside 1/8×–8× of the current price is withheld — the assumptions do not fit that business, so no number is shown.
- Sensitivity, not a single oracle number. A 5×5 grid over (growth-start offset × discount offset) shows how the estimate moves as the two key assumptions change — the honest presentation of model uncertainty.
This page is a deterministic model estimate under disclosed assumptions — not a price target, forecast or investment advice. Source: SEC XBRL filings, delayed prices and US Treasury yields; for reference only.