GPIGROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE INC— fair value (DCF model)
A deterministic two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) estimate of this company's per-share fair value, and how far it sits above or below the current share price — with the full assumptions, a growth×discount sensitivity grid and the methodology. Every figure is engine-computed from SEC filings, delayed prices and the 10-year Treasury yield, with no LLM. This is a model estimate under disclosed assumptions, not a price target, forecast or investment advice.
The model estimates $665.42 per share — 131.7% above the current price of $287.24.
A deterministic model estimate under the disclosed assumptions (two-stage DCF over as-reported SEC figures; CAPM discount off the 10Y Treasury). NOT a price target, forecast, or investment advice — the sensitivity grid shows how the estimate moves as assumptions change.
Free-cash-flow DCF
The model estimates $665.42 per share — 131.7% above the current price of $287.24.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $424.5M |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 7.2% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 7.2% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.8% + β 0.96 × 5.0% = 9.6% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $638.37 | $585.81 | $541.27 | $503.05 | $469.89 |
| −2.5pp | $709.78 | $650.58 | $600.44 | $557.42 | $520.11 |
| base | $788.31 | $721.77 | $665.42 | $617.10 | $575.20 |
| +2.5pp | $874.58 | $799.91 | $736.71 | $682.52 | $635.56 |
| +5pp | $969.23 | $885.60 | $814.83 | $754.18 | $701.63 |
Earnings (net-income) DCF
The model estimates $554.07 per share — 92.9% above the current price of $287.24.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $325.2M |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 9.2% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 9.2% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.8% + β 0.96 × 5.0% = 9.6% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $533.40 | $489.02 | $451.42 | $419.16 | $391.18 |
| −2.5pp | $592.54 | $542.63 | $500.36 | $464.11 | $432.68 |
| base | $657.51 | $601.49 | $554.07 | $513.41 | $478.16 |
| +2.5pp | $728.81 | $666.05 | $612.93 | $567.40 | $527.96 |
| +5pp | $806.98 | $736.78 | $677.39 | $626.49 | $582.41 |
Model computed 2026-08-02 · Source: SEC XBRL filings + delayed price + 10Y Treasury yield · For reference only · Not investment advice
How the model works
- Two-stage DCF. Stage 1 projects ten explicit years of cash flow; stage 2 caps it with a Gordon terminal value. The model runs two variants — one over free cash flow, one over earnings (net income) — whenever each is computable.
- Dollar-level projection ÷ current shares. The company-level dollar series is projected and divided by the current share count once at the end. Dollar totals are split-immune, whereas a per-share history mixes pre/post-split bases.
- Linear growth decay. Stage-1 growth starts at the historical CAGR of the base series (clamped into 0%–20%; the raw CAGR is still disclosed) and decays linearly to the terminal rate.
- Gordon terminal growth = min(10-year Treasury yield, 3%). A company cannot outgrow the economy forever; the discount rate must clear the terminal rate by a minimum spread or the value is undefined.
- CAPM discount rate = 10-year Treasury + beta × equity-risk premium (5%). Beta is clamped into 0.6–2.0 (a degenerate regression beta destabilises the model); an unknown beta defaults to 1.0. Every clamp/default is disclosed.
- Honesty gates (absent, never fabricated): at least four annual points with positive first/last values to anchor a CAGR; banks, insurers and REITs are out of model scope (an FCF/earnings DCF structurally misfits their economics); and a result outside 1/8×–8× of the current price is withheld — the assumptions do not fit that business, so no number is shown.
- Sensitivity, not a single oracle number. A 5×5 grid over (growth-start offset × discount offset) shows how the estimate moves as the two key assumptions change — the honest presentation of model uncertainty.
This page is a deterministic model estimate under disclosed assumptions — not a price target, forecast or investment advice. Source: SEC XBRL filings, delayed prices and US Treasury yields; for reference only.