GWWW.W. GRAINGER, INC.— fair value (DCF model)
A deterministic two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) estimate of this company's per-share fair value, and how far it sits above or below the current share price — with the full assumptions, a growth×discount sensitivity grid and the methodology. Every figure is engine-computed from SEC filings, delayed prices and the 10-year Treasury yield, with no LLM. This is a model estimate under disclosed assumptions, not a price target, forecast or investment advice.
The model estimates $607.39 per share — 58.2% below the current price of $1,452.06.
A deterministic model estimate under the disclosed assumptions (two-stage DCF over as-reported SEC figures; CAPM discount off the 10Y Treasury). NOT a price target, forecast, or investment advice — the sensitivity grid shows how the estimate moves as assumptions change.
Free-cash-flow DCF
The model estimates $607.39 per share — 58.2% below the current price of $1,452.06.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $1.3B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 6.7% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 6.7% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.9% + β 0.75 × 5.0% = 8.6% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $597.10 | $539.39 | $491.90 | $452.13 | $418.34 |
| −2.5pp | $665.47 | $600.42 | $546.90 | $502.10 | $464.05 |
| base | $740.77 | $667.58 | $607.39 | $557.02 | $514.25 |
| +2.5pp | $823.61 | $741.42 | $673.84 | $617.31 | $569.33 |
| +5pp | $914.62 | $822.49 | $746.76 | $683.43 | $629.69 |
Earnings (net-income) DCF
The model estimates $974.82 per share — 32.9% below the current price of $1,452.06.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $1.7B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 12.2% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 12.2% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.9% + β 0.75 × 5.0% = 8.6% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $967.76 | $871.97 | $793.19 | $727.27 | $671.30 |
| −2.5pp | $1,075.75 | $968.21 | $879.80 | $805.84 | $743.07 |
| base | $1,194.36 | $1,073.87 | $974.82 | $891.99 | $821.71 |
| +2.5pp | $1,324.50 | $1,189.72 | $1,078.95 | $986.35 | $907.79 |
| +5pp | $1,467.12 | $1,316.60 | $1,192.94 | $1,089.57 | $1,001.91 |
Model computed 2026-11-06 · Source: SEC XBRL filings + delayed price + 10Y Treasury yield · For reference only · Not investment advice
How the model works
- Two-stage DCF. Stage 1 projects ten explicit years of cash flow; stage 2 caps it with a Gordon terminal value. The model runs two variants — one over free cash flow, one over earnings (net income) — whenever each is computable.
- Dollar-level projection ÷ current shares. The company-level dollar series is projected and divided by the current share count once at the end. Dollar totals are split-immune, whereas a per-share history mixes pre/post-split bases.
- Linear growth decay. Stage-1 growth starts at the historical CAGR of the base series (clamped into 0%–20%; the raw CAGR is still disclosed) and decays linearly to the terminal rate.
- Gordon terminal growth = min(10-year Treasury yield, 3%). A company cannot outgrow the economy forever; the discount rate must clear the terminal rate by a minimum spread or the value is undefined.
- CAPM discount rate = 10-year Treasury + beta × equity-risk premium (5%). Beta is clamped into 0.6–2.0 (a degenerate regression beta destabilises the model); an unknown beta defaults to 1.0. Every clamp/default is disclosed.
- Honesty gates (absent, never fabricated): at least four annual points with positive first/last values to anchor a CAGR; banks, insurers and REITs are out of model scope (an FCF/earnings DCF structurally misfits their economics); and a result outside 1/8×–8× of the current price is withheld — the assumptions do not fit that business, so no number is shown.
- Sensitivity, not a single oracle number. A 5×5 grid over (growth-start offset × discount offset) shows how the estimate moves as the two key assumptions change — the honest presentation of model uncertainty.
This page is a deterministic model estimate under disclosed assumptions — not a price target, forecast or investment advice. Source: SEC XBRL filings, delayed prices and US Treasury yields; for reference only.