MPCMarathon Petroleum Corp— fair value (DCF model)
A deterministic two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) estimate of this company's per-share fair value, and how far it sits above or below the current share price — with the full assumptions, a growth×discount sensitivity grid and the methodology. Every figure is engine-computed from SEC filings, delayed prices and the 10-year Treasury yield, with no LLM. This is a model estimate under disclosed assumptions, not a price target, forecast or investment advice.
The model estimates $599.41 per share — 34.8% above the current price of $444.64.
A deterministic model estimate under the disclosed assumptions (two-stage DCF over as-reported SEC figures; CAPM discount off the 10Y Treasury). NOT a price target, forecast, or investment advice — the sensitivity grid shows how the estimate moves as assumptions change.
Free-cash-flow DCF
The model estimates $599.41 per share — 34.8% above the current price of $444.64.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $4.8B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 17.4% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 17.4% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.9% + β 0.67 × 5.0% = 8.3% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $608.17 | $542.50 | $489.28 | $445.28 | $408.31 |
| −2.5pp | $674.83 | $601.37 | $541.85 | $492.66 | $451.33 |
| base | $747.90 | $665.87 | $599.41 | $544.50 | $498.38 |
| +2.5pp | $827.91 | $736.45 | $662.37 | $601.18 | $549.80 |
| +5pp | $831.18 | $739.33 | $664.94 | $603.49 | $551.90 |
Earnings (net-income) DCF
The model estimates $457.00 per share — 2.8% above the current price of $444.64.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $4.0B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 14.7% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 14.7% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.9% + β 0.67 × 5.0% = 8.3% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $461.59 | $412.20 | $372.16 | $339.06 | $311.23 |
| −2.5pp | $512.84 | $457.49 | $412.63 | $375.55 | $344.39 |
| base | $569.09 | $507.17 | $457.00 | $415.54 | $380.70 |
| +2.5pp | $630.76 | $561.61 | $505.59 | $459.30 | $420.42 |
| +5pp | $698.29 | $621.18 | $558.73 | $507.14 | $463.82 |
Model computed 2026-11-01 · Source: SEC XBRL filings + delayed price + 10Y Treasury yield · For reference only · Not investment advice
How the model works
- Two-stage DCF. Stage 1 projects ten explicit years of cash flow; stage 2 caps it with a Gordon terminal value. The model runs two variants — one over free cash flow, one over earnings (net income) — whenever each is computable.
- Dollar-level projection ÷ current shares. The company-level dollar series is projected and divided by the current share count once at the end. Dollar totals are split-immune, whereas a per-share history mixes pre/post-split bases.
- Linear growth decay. Stage-1 growth starts at the historical CAGR of the base series (clamped into 0%–20%; the raw CAGR is still disclosed) and decays linearly to the terminal rate.
- Gordon terminal growth = min(10-year Treasury yield, 3%). A company cannot outgrow the economy forever; the discount rate must clear the terminal rate by a minimum spread or the value is undefined.
- CAPM discount rate = 10-year Treasury + beta × equity-risk premium (5%). Beta is clamped into 0.6–2.0 (a degenerate regression beta destabilises the model); an unknown beta defaults to 1.0. Every clamp/default is disclosed.
- Honesty gates (absent, never fabricated): at least four annual points with positive first/last values to anchor a CAGR; banks, insurers and REITs are out of model scope (an FCF/earnings DCF structurally misfits their economics); and a result outside 1/8×–8× of the current price is withheld — the assumptions do not fit that business, so no number is shown.
- Sensitivity, not a single oracle number. A 5×5 grid over (growth-start offset × discount offset) shows how the estimate moves as the two key assumptions change — the honest presentation of model uncertainty.
This page is a deterministic model estimate under disclosed assumptions — not a price target, forecast or investment advice. Source: SEC XBRL filings, delayed prices and US Treasury yields; for reference only.