NEUNEWMARKET CORP— fair value (DCF model)
A deterministic two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) estimate of this company's per-share fair value, and how far it sits above or below the current share price — with the full assumptions, a growth×discount sensitivity grid and the methodology. Every figure is engine-computed from SEC filings, delayed prices and the 10-year Treasury yield, with no LLM. This is a model estimate under disclosed assumptions, not a price target, forecast or investment advice.
The model estimates $1,487.88 per share — 97.9% above the current price of $751.99.
A deterministic model estimate under the disclosed assumptions (two-stage DCF over as-reported SEC figures; CAPM discount off the 10Y Treasury). NOT a price target, forecast, or investment advice — the sensitivity grid shows how the estimate moves as assumptions change.
Free-cash-flow DCF
The model estimates $1,487.88 per share — 97.9% above the current price of $751.99.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $491.3M |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 9.9% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 9.9% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 5.0% + β 0.60 (clamped) × 5.0% = 8.0% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $1,512.30 | $1,341.14 | $1,204.58 | $1,093.10 | $1,000.38 |
| −2.5pp | $1,685.65 | $1,493.11 | $1,339.53 | $1,214.20 | $1,109.98 |
| base | $1,876.46 | $1,660.27 | $1,487.88 | $1,347.22 | $1,230.30 |
| +2.5pp | $2,086.21 | $1,843.92 | $1,650.75 | $1,493.18 | $1,362.24 |
| +5pp | $2,316.51 | $2,045.43 | $1,829.36 | $1,653.16 | $1,506.77 |
Earnings (net-income) DCF
The model estimates $1,086.89 per share — 44.5% above the current price of $751.99.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $418.7M |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 6.2% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 6.2% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 5.0% + β 0.60 (clamped) × 5.0% = 8.0% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $1,096.96 | $974.60 | $876.95 | $797.19 | $730.83 |
| −2.5pp | $1,225.03 | $1,087.00 | $976.86 | $886.94 | $812.14 |
| base | $1,366.28 | $1,210.86 | $1,086.89 | $985.70 | $901.55 |
| +2.5pp | $1,521.84 | $1,347.19 | $1,207.91 | $1,094.25 | $999.76 |
| +5pp | $1,692.94 | $1,497.04 | $1,340.85 | $1,213.42 | $1,107.52 |
Model computed 2026-11-04 · Source: SEC XBRL filings + delayed price + 10Y Treasury yield · For reference only · Not investment advice
How the model works
- Two-stage DCF. Stage 1 projects ten explicit years of cash flow; stage 2 caps it with a Gordon terminal value. The model runs two variants — one over free cash flow, one over earnings (net income) — whenever each is computable.
- Dollar-level projection ÷ current shares. The company-level dollar series is projected and divided by the current share count once at the end. Dollar totals are split-immune, whereas a per-share history mixes pre/post-split bases.
- Linear growth decay. Stage-1 growth starts at the historical CAGR of the base series (clamped into 0%–20%; the raw CAGR is still disclosed) and decays linearly to the terminal rate.
- Gordon terminal growth = min(10-year Treasury yield, 3%). A company cannot outgrow the economy forever; the discount rate must clear the terminal rate by a minimum spread or the value is undefined.
- CAPM discount rate = 10-year Treasury + beta × equity-risk premium (5%). Beta is clamped into 0.6–2.0 (a degenerate regression beta destabilises the model); an unknown beta defaults to 1.0. Every clamp/default is disclosed.
- Honesty gates (absent, never fabricated): at least four annual points with positive first/last values to anchor a CAGR; banks, insurers and REITs are out of model scope (an FCF/earnings DCF structurally misfits their economics); and a result outside 1/8×–8× of the current price is withheld — the assumptions do not fit that business, so no number is shown.
- Sensitivity, not a single oracle number. A 5×5 grid over (growth-start offset × discount offset) shows how the estimate moves as the two key assumptions change — the honest presentation of model uncertainty.
This page is a deterministic model estimate under disclosed assumptions — not a price target, forecast or investment advice. Source: SEC XBRL filings, delayed prices and US Treasury yields; for reference only.