AZOAUTOZONE INC— fair value (DCF model)
A deterministic two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) estimate of this company's per-share fair value, and how far it sits above or below the current share price — with the full assumptions, a growth×discount sensitivity grid and the methodology. Every figure is engine-computed from SEC filings, delayed prices and the 10-year Treasury yield, with no LLM. This is a model estimate under disclosed assumptions, not a price target, forecast or investment advice.
The model estimates $2,672.86 per share — 15.0% below the current price of $3,145.09.
A deterministic model estimate under the disclosed assumptions (two-stage DCF over as-reported SEC figures; CAPM discount off the 10Y Treasury). NOT a price target, forecast, or investment advice — the sensitivity grid shows how the estimate moves as assumptions change.
Free-cash-flow DCF
The model estimates $2,672.86 per share — 15.0% below the current price of $3,145.09.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $1.8B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 5.0% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 5.0% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.6% + β 0.60 (clamped) × 5.0% = 7.6% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $2,737.62 | $2,408.41 | $2,150.52 | $1,943.03 | $1,772.46 |
| −2.5pp | $3,061.99 | $2,690.16 | $2,398.97 | $2,164.75 | $1,972.27 |
| base | $3,420.11 | $3,001.00 | $2,672.86 | $2,409.00 | $2,192.23 |
| +2.5pp | $3,814.96 | $3,343.47 | $2,974.42 | $2,677.74 | $2,434.07 |
| +5pp | $4,249.74 | $3,720.33 | $3,306.04 | $2,973.07 | $2,699.66 |
Earnings (net-income) DCF
The model estimates $4,252.42 per share — 35.2% above the current price of $3,145.09.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $2.5B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 8.1% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 8.1% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.6% + β 0.60 (clamped) × 5.0% = 7.6% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $4,382.55 | $3,849.23 | $3,431.60 | $3,095.70 | $2,819.67 |
| −2.5pp | $4,893.61 | $4,292.74 | $3,822.33 | $3,444.09 | $3,133.36 |
| base | $5,456.92 | $4,781.25 | $4,252.42 | $3,827.30 | $3,478.17 |
| +2.5pp | $6,077.00 | $5,318.65 | $4,725.23 | $4,248.32 | $3,856.74 |
| +5pp | $6,758.71 | $5,909.09 | $5,244.39 | $4,710.32 | $4,271.92 |
Model computed 2026-07-29 · Source: SEC XBRL filings + delayed price + 10Y Treasury yield · For reference only · Not investment advice
How the model works
- Two-stage DCF. Stage 1 projects ten explicit years of cash flow; stage 2 caps it with a Gordon terminal value. The model runs two variants — one over free cash flow, one over earnings (net income) — whenever each is computable.
- Dollar-level projection ÷ current shares. The company-level dollar series is projected and divided by the current share count once at the end. Dollar totals are split-immune, whereas a per-share history mixes pre/post-split bases.
- Linear growth decay. Stage-1 growth starts at the historical CAGR of the base series (clamped into 0%–20%; the raw CAGR is still disclosed) and decays linearly to the terminal rate.
- Gordon terminal growth = min(10-year Treasury yield, 3%). A company cannot outgrow the economy forever; the discount rate must clear the terminal rate by a minimum spread or the value is undefined.
- CAPM discount rate = 10-year Treasury + beta × equity-risk premium (5%). Beta is clamped into 0.6–2.0 (a degenerate regression beta destabilises the model); an unknown beta defaults to 1.0. Every clamp/default is disclosed.
- Honesty gates (absent, never fabricated): at least four annual points with positive first/last values to anchor a CAGR; banks, insurers and REITs are out of model scope (an FCF/earnings DCF structurally misfits their economics); and a result outside 1/8×–8× of the current price is withheld — the assumptions do not fit that business, so no number is shown.
- Sensitivity, not a single oracle number. A 5×5 grid over (growth-start offset × discount offset) shows how the estimate moves as the two key assumptions change — the honest presentation of model uncertainty.
This page is a deterministic model estimate under disclosed assumptions — not a price target, forecast or investment advice. Source: SEC XBRL filings, delayed prices and US Treasury yields; for reference only.