GHCGraham Holdings Co— fair value (DCF model)
A deterministic two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) estimate of this company's per-share fair value, and how far it sits above or below the current share price — with the full assumptions, a growth×discount sensitivity grid and the methodology. Every figure is engine-computed from SEC filings, delayed prices and the 10-year Treasury yield, with no LLM. This is a model estimate under disclosed assumptions, not a price target, forecast or investment advice.
The model estimates $1,384.22 per share — 20.2% above the current price of $1,151.29.
A deterministic model estimate under the disclosed assumptions (two-stage DCF over as-reported SEC figures; CAPM discount off the 10Y Treasury). NOT a price target, forecast, or investment advice — the sensitivity grid shows how the estimate moves as assumptions change.
Free-cash-flow DCF
The model estimates $1,384.22 per share — 20.2% above the current price of $1,151.29.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $275.3M |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 3.9% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 3.9% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 5.0% + β 0.60 (clamped) × 5.0% = 8.0% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $1,458.43 | $1,296.97 | $1,168.01 | $1,062.64 | $974.90 |
| −2.5pp | $1,554.15 | $1,381.03 | $1,242.80 | $1,129.86 | $1,035.85 |
| base | $1,735.36 | $1,540.10 | $1,384.22 | $1,256.91 | $1,150.96 |
| +2.5pp | $1,935.18 | $1,715.37 | $1,539.94 | $1,396.70 | $1,277.54 |
| +5pp | $2,155.23 | $1,908.25 | $1,711.19 | $1,550.33 | $1,416.55 |
Earnings (net-income) DCF
The model estimates $1,626.49 per share — 41.3% above the current price of $1,151.29.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $292.3M |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 6.3% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 6.3% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 5.0% + β 0.60 (clamped) × 5.0% = 8.0% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $1,641.10 | $1,458.39 | $1,312.50 | $1,193.30 | $1,094.07 |
| −2.5pp | $1,832.57 | $1,626.47 | $1,461.94 | $1,327.55 | $1,215.72 |
| base | $2,043.72 | $1,811.68 | $1,626.49 | $1,475.28 | $1,349.49 |
| +2.5pp | $2,276.24 | $2,015.51 | $1,807.47 | $1,637.64 | $1,496.41 |
| +5pp | $2,532.00 | $2,239.56 | $2,006.27 | $1,815.88 | $1,657.59 |
Model computed 2026-09-23 · Source: SEC XBRL filings + delayed price + 10Y Treasury yield · For reference only · Not investment advice
How the model works
- Two-stage DCF. Stage 1 projects ten explicit years of cash flow; stage 2 caps it with a Gordon terminal value. The model runs two variants — one over free cash flow, one over earnings (net income) — whenever each is computable.
- Dollar-level projection ÷ current shares. The company-level dollar series is projected and divided by the current share count once at the end. Dollar totals are split-immune, whereas a per-share history mixes pre/post-split bases.
- Linear growth decay. Stage-1 growth starts at the historical CAGR of the base series (clamped into 0%–20%; the raw CAGR is still disclosed) and decays linearly to the terminal rate.
- Gordon terminal growth = min(10-year Treasury yield, 3%). A company cannot outgrow the economy forever; the discount rate must clear the terminal rate by a minimum spread or the value is undefined.
- CAPM discount rate = 10-year Treasury + beta × equity-risk premium (5%). Beta is clamped into 0.6–2.0 (a degenerate regression beta destabilises the model); an unknown beta defaults to 1.0. Every clamp/default is disclosed.
- Honesty gates (absent, never fabricated): at least four annual points with positive first/last values to anchor a CAGR; banks, insurers and REITs are out of model scope (an FCF/earnings DCF structurally misfits their economics); and a result outside 1/8×–8× of the current price is withheld — the assumptions do not fit that business, so no number is shown.
- Sensitivity, not a single oracle number. A 5×5 grid over (growth-start offset × discount offset) shows how the estimate moves as the two key assumptions change — the honest presentation of model uncertainty.
This page is a deterministic model estimate under disclosed assumptions — not a price target, forecast or investment advice. Source: SEC XBRL filings, delayed prices and US Treasury yields; for reference only.