MRNAModerna, Inc.— growth of $10,000
A total-return backtest of a $10,000 investment in this stock, grown over about 8 years on real split- and dividend-adjusted prices and compared against the same amount in the S&P 500 (SPY). The equity curve and the risk/return stats — CAGR, volatility, Sharpe, Sortino and max drawdown — are engine-computed from historical prices, with no LLM. This is a historical backtest, not a prediction: past performance does not predict future results.
$10,000 투자 성장
vs SPY| 지표 | MRNA | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 최종 가치 | $30.5K | $32.2K |
| 총수익률 | +205.2% | +222.4% |
| CAGR | +15.7% | +16.5% |
| 변동성 | 72.2% | 19.2% |
| 샤프 | 0.51 | 0.70 |
| 소르티노 | 0.78 | 0.98 |
| 최대 낙폭 | -95.4% | -33.8% |
거래일 1922일 기준, 2018-12-07 → 2026-08-03 · 무위험수익률 3.83% (현재 단기 국채 금리, 고정 적용)
A total-return backtest over real split- and dividend-adjusted prices: how a one-time $10,000 investment held to today would have grown, versus SPY over the same window. A disclosed historical statistic — NOT a prediction, a guarantee, or investment advice. Past performance does not predict future results.
How the backtest works
- $10,000 at the start. The same fixed amount is invested in the stock and, for comparison, in the S&P 500 (SPY) on the first day of the window, and its value is tracked to today.
- Total return, not price-only. Prices are split- and dividend-adjusted, so the curve reflects reinvested dividends and share splits — the real economic outcome of buying and holding.
- CAGR = the compound annual growth rate that turns the starting $10,000 into the ending value over the window; it smooths a bumpy path into one annualised figure.
- Volatility = the annualised standard deviation of returns (how much the value swings); Sharpe and Sortino divide return-above-the-risk-free-rate by that risk (Sortino counts only downside swings). Higher ratios = more return per unit of risk.
- Max drawdown = the largest peak-to-trough decline along the way — the worst loss you would have sat through before recovering.
- A historical backtest, not a forecast. Every figure is engine-computed from past prices; a stat is shown only when it is computable (otherwise "—", never a fabricated 0). Past performance does not predict future results.
This page is a total-return backtest over real historical prices — not a prediction, price target or investment advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Source: split- and dividend-adjusted prices; for reference only.