TDGTransDigm Group INC— fair value (DCF model)
A deterministic two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) estimate of this company's per-share fair value, and how far it sits above or below the current share price — with the full assumptions, a growth×discount sensitivity grid and the methodology. Every figure is engine-computed from SEC filings, delayed prices and the 10-year Treasury yield, with no LLM. This is a model estimate under disclosed assumptions, not a price target, forecast or investment advice.
The model estimates $721.28 per share — 33.5% below the current price of $1,085.33.
A deterministic model estimate under the disclosed assumptions (two-stage DCF over as-reported SEC figures; CAPM discount off the 10Y Treasury). NOT a price target, forecast, or investment advice — the sensitivity grid shows how the estimate moves as assumptions change.
Free-cash-flow DCF
The model estimates $721.28 per share — 33.5% below the current price of $1,085.33.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $1.8B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 12.3% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 12.3% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 5.0% + β 0.97 × 5.0% = 9.8% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $693.30 | $637.44 | $589.77 | $548.61 | $512.72 |
| −2.5pp | $768.65 | $705.99 | $652.53 | $606.39 | $566.18 |
| base | $851.29 | $781.12 | $721.28 | $669.65 | $624.66 |
| +2.5pp | $941.82 | $863.39 | $796.51 | $738.83 | $688.58 |
| +5pp | $1,040.90 | $953.37 | $878.75 | $814.42 | $758.39 |
Earnings (net-income) DCF
The model estimates $919.38 per share — 15.3% below the current price of $1,085.33.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $2.1B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 15.1% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 15.1% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 5.0% + β 0.97 × 5.0% = 9.8% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $887.59 | $815.15 | $753.34 | $700.00 | $653.51 |
| −2.5pp | $982.91 | $901.80 | $832.63 | $772.95 | $720.95 |
| base | $1,087.32 | $996.67 | $919.38 | $852.72 | $794.65 |
| +2.5pp | $1,201.57 | $1,100.42 | $1,014.20 | $939.86 | $875.13 |
| +5pp | $1,322.88 | $1,210.53 | $1,114.79 | $1,032.25 | $960.40 |
Model computed 2026-09-15 · Source: SEC XBRL filings + delayed price + 10Y Treasury yield · For reference only · Not investment advice
How the model works
- Two-stage DCF. Stage 1 projects ten explicit years of cash flow; stage 2 caps it with a Gordon terminal value. The model runs two variants — one over free cash flow, one over earnings (net income) — whenever each is computable.
- Dollar-level projection ÷ current shares. The company-level dollar series is projected and divided by the current share count once at the end. Dollar totals are split-immune, whereas a per-share history mixes pre/post-split bases.
- Linear growth decay. Stage-1 growth starts at the historical CAGR of the base series (clamped into 0%–20%; the raw CAGR is still disclosed) and decays linearly to the terminal rate.
- Gordon terminal growth = min(10-year Treasury yield, 3%). A company cannot outgrow the economy forever; the discount rate must clear the terminal rate by a minimum spread or the value is undefined.
- CAPM discount rate = 10-year Treasury + beta × equity-risk premium (5%). Beta is clamped into 0.6–2.0 (a degenerate regression beta destabilises the model); an unknown beta defaults to 1.0. Every clamp/default is disclosed.
- Honesty gates (absent, never fabricated): at least four annual points with positive first/last values to anchor a CAGR; banks, insurers and REITs are out of model scope (an FCF/earnings DCF structurally misfits their economics); and a result outside 1/8×–8× of the current price is withheld — the assumptions do not fit that business, so no number is shown.
- Sensitivity, not a single oracle number. A 5×5 grid over (growth-start offset × discount offset) shows how the estimate moves as the two key assumptions change — the honest presentation of model uncertainty.
This page is a deterministic model estimate under disclosed assumptions — not a price target, forecast or investment advice. Source: SEC XBRL filings, delayed prices and US Treasury yields; for reference only.