TOLToll Brothers, Inc.— fair value (DCF model)
A deterministic two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) estimate of this company's per-share fair value, and how far it sits above or below the current share price — with the full assumptions, a growth×discount sensitivity grid and the methodology. Every figure is engine-computed from SEC filings, delayed prices and the 10-year Treasury yield, with no LLM. This is a model estimate under disclosed assumptions, not a price target, forecast or investment advice.
The model estimates $275.40 per share — 100.4% above the current price of $137.41.
A deterministic model estimate under the disclosed assumptions (two-stage DCF over as-reported SEC figures; CAPM discount off the 10Y Treasury). NOT a price target, forecast, or investment advice — the sensitivity grid shows how the estimate moves as assumptions change.
Free-cash-flow DCF
The model estimates $275.40 per share — 100.4% above the current price of $137.41.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $1.0B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 26.6% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 20.0% (clamped from 26.6% into 0–20%) |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 5.0% + β 1.23 × 5.0% = 11.1% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $261.94 | $243.55 | $227.46 | $213.26 | $200.65 |
| −2.5pp | $288.84 | $268.33 | $250.39 | $234.57 | $220.52 |
| base | $318.20 | $295.37 | $275.40 | $257.80 | $242.17 |
| +2.5pp | $318.20 | $295.37 | $275.40 | $257.80 | $242.17 |
| +5pp | $318.20 | $295.37 | $275.40 | $257.80 | $242.17 |
Earnings (net-income) DCF
The model estimates $298.70 per share — 117.4% above the current price of $137.41.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $1.3B |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 15.0% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 15.0% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 5.0% + β 1.23 × 5.0% = 11.1% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $282.11 | $262.78 | $245.86 | $230.92 | $217.63 |
| −2.5pp | $311.66 | $290.03 | $271.11 | $254.40 | $239.56 |
| base | $343.98 | $319.83 | $298.70 | $280.05 | $263.49 |
| +2.5pp | $379.30 | $352.37 | $328.81 | $308.04 | $289.58 |
| +5pp | $417.51 | $387.55 | $361.35 | $338.26 | $317.75 |
Model computed 2026-09-23 · Source: SEC XBRL filings + delayed price + 10Y Treasury yield · For reference only · Not investment advice
How the model works
- Two-stage DCF. Stage 1 projects ten explicit years of cash flow; stage 2 caps it with a Gordon terminal value. The model runs two variants — one over free cash flow, one over earnings (net income) — whenever each is computable.
- Dollar-level projection ÷ current shares. The company-level dollar series is projected and divided by the current share count once at the end. Dollar totals are split-immune, whereas a per-share history mixes pre/post-split bases.
- Linear growth decay. Stage-1 growth starts at the historical CAGR of the base series (clamped into 0%–20%; the raw CAGR is still disclosed) and decays linearly to the terminal rate.
- Gordon terminal growth = min(10-year Treasury yield, 3%). A company cannot outgrow the economy forever; the discount rate must clear the terminal rate by a minimum spread or the value is undefined.
- CAPM discount rate = 10-year Treasury + beta × equity-risk premium (5%). Beta is clamped into 0.6–2.0 (a degenerate regression beta destabilises the model); an unknown beta defaults to 1.0. Every clamp/default is disclosed.
- Honesty gates (absent, never fabricated): at least four annual points with positive first/last values to anchor a CAGR; banks, insurers and REITs are out of model scope (an FCF/earnings DCF structurally misfits their economics); and a result outside 1/8×–8× of the current price is withheld — the assumptions do not fit that business, so no number is shown.
- Sensitivity, not a single oracle number. A 5×5 grid over (growth-start offset × discount offset) shows how the estimate moves as the two key assumptions change — the honest presentation of model uncertainty.
This page is a deterministic model estimate under disclosed assumptions — not a price target, forecast or investment advice. Source: SEC XBRL filings, delayed prices and US Treasury yields; for reference only.