PAGPENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, INC.— fair value (DCF model)
A deterministic two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) estimate of this company's per-share fair value, and how far it sits above or below the current share price — with the full assumptions, a growth×discount sensitivity grid and the methodology. Every figure is engine-computed from SEC filings, delayed prices and the 10-year Treasury yield, with no LLM. This is a model estimate under disclosed assumptions, not a price target, forecast or investment advice.
The model estimates $272.29 per share — 28.3% above the current price of $212.27.
A deterministic model estimate under the disclosed assumptions (two-stage DCF over as-reported SEC figures; CAPM discount off the 10Y Treasury). NOT a price target, forecast, or investment advice — the sensitivity grid shows how the estimate moves as assumptions change.
Free-cash-flow DCF
The model estimates $272.29 per share — 28.3% above the current price of $212.27.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $650.5M |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 16.2% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 16.2% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.9% + β 0.90 × 5.0% = 9.4% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $266.02 | $242.66 | $222.96 | $206.12 | $191.58 |
| −2.5pp | $294.70 | $268.55 | $246.51 | $227.69 | $211.43 |
| base | $326.10 | $296.90 | $272.29 | $251.27 | $233.12 |
| +2.5pp | $360.47 | $327.90 | $300.46 | $277.03 | $256.81 |
| +5pp | $379.33 | $344.91 | $315.91 | $291.16 | $269.79 |
Earnings (net-income) DCF
The model estimates $328.18 per share — 54.6% above the current price of $212.27.
| Base fiscal year · base amount | FY2025 · $935.4M |
| History years | 10 |
| Historical CAGR (raw) | 11.8% |
| Growth start (year 1) | 11.8% |
| Terminal growth (Gordon) | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (CAPM) | 4.9% + β 0.90 × 5.0% = 9.4% |
| Projection years | 10 |
| Growth ↓ / Discount → | −1pp | −0.5pp | base | +0.5pp | +1pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5pp | $318.34 | $290.92 | $267.78 | $248.00 | $230.90 |
| −2.5pp | $353.34 | $322.56 | $296.59 | $274.41 | $255.23 |
| base | $391.75 | $357.26 | $328.18 | $303.34 | $281.87 |
| +2.5pp | $433.86 | $395.29 | $362.77 | $335.00 | $311.01 |
| +5pp | $479.98 | $436.91 | $400.61 | $369.61 | $342.85 |
Model computed 2026-11-06 · Source: SEC XBRL filings + delayed price + 10Y Treasury yield · For reference only · Not investment advice
How the model works
- Two-stage DCF. Stage 1 projects ten explicit years of cash flow; stage 2 caps it with a Gordon terminal value. The model runs two variants — one over free cash flow, one over earnings (net income) — whenever each is computable.
- Dollar-level projection ÷ current shares. The company-level dollar series is projected and divided by the current share count once at the end. Dollar totals are split-immune, whereas a per-share history mixes pre/post-split bases.
- Linear growth decay. Stage-1 growth starts at the historical CAGR of the base series (clamped into 0%–20%; the raw CAGR is still disclosed) and decays linearly to the terminal rate.
- Gordon terminal growth = min(10-year Treasury yield, 3%). A company cannot outgrow the economy forever; the discount rate must clear the terminal rate by a minimum spread or the value is undefined.
- CAPM discount rate = 10-year Treasury + beta × equity-risk premium (5%). Beta is clamped into 0.6–2.0 (a degenerate regression beta destabilises the model); an unknown beta defaults to 1.0. Every clamp/default is disclosed.
- Honesty gates (absent, never fabricated): at least four annual points with positive first/last values to anchor a CAGR; banks, insurers and REITs are out of model scope (an FCF/earnings DCF structurally misfits their economics); and a result outside 1/8×–8× of the current price is withheld — the assumptions do not fit that business, so no number is shown.
- Sensitivity, not a single oracle number. A 5×5 grid over (growth-start offset × discount offset) shows how the estimate moves as the two key assumptions change — the honest presentation of model uncertainty.
This page is a deterministic model estimate under disclosed assumptions — not a price target, forecast or investment advice. Source: SEC XBRL filings, delayed prices and US Treasury yields; for reference only.