AI 产业链专区
黄仁勋「五层蛋糕」:供电 → 芯片 → 基础设施 → 大模型 → 应用
AI 产业链,一层一层看 —— 从供电、算力芯片,到大模型与应用价值捕获。每层的关键上市公司,并标出供应链「卡脖子」环节。层级为人工策展,价格为公开数据实时(延迟)行情。非投资建议。
能源 —— 供电与散热
硬性物理地基:发电、配电设备(变压器、开关柜、UPS),以及为 AI 工厂 50–130kW 机柜散热的液冷。电力供给决定一个地区能产出多少智能。
Cleanest public pure-play on AI data-center power management + liquid cooling.
Broad electrical portfolio (power distribution, UPS/PDU) + liquid cooling; data-center orders surging.
Supplies the electrons — gas turbines + grid electrification gear for AI campuses.
Builds + connects the grid/substation power infrastructure feeding new AI data centers.
Largest US merchant/nuclear generator; signs power deals directly with hyperscalers.
Independent power producer (gas + nuclear) selling firm capacity to data-center load growth.
Nuclear-heavy IPP; pioneered co-located data-center-at-the-reactor power deals.
芯片 —— 算力硅
卡脖子卖铲子的瓶颈:GPU 与定制 AI ASIC,加上谁都绕不开的上游 —— 台积电先进制程 + 约 90% 的 CoWoS 先进封装、ASML 的 EUV 光刻垄断、供不应求的 HBM 寡头。这一层由供给(而非需求)决定加速器产量。
Dominant merchant AI GPU + CUDA + NVLink; the reference platform for the whole stack.
Instinct MI GPUs + EPYC CPUs; the credible second source in training/inference accelerators.
Co-designs custom AI ASICs (XPUs) for the hyperscalers; ~70% of the custom-accelerator design market.
Other custom-ASIC house (Trainium, Maia) + data-center networking/optical silicon.
THE chokepoint: sole leading-edge foundry + ~90% of CoWoS packaging that gates every accelerator.
EUV-lithography monopoly — no advanced AI logic chip exists without its machines.
Only US-listed HBM supplier; HBM is a sold-out 3-player oligopoly gating GPU memory bandwidth.
CPU instruction-set IP under NVIDIA Grace + most data-center/edge CPUs — a royalty toll on compute.
Largest wafer-fab equipment maker; arms the foundries expanding leading-edge + packaging capacity.
Etch/deposition leader critical to HBM stacking + advanced-node and packaging buildout.
基础设施 —— AI 工厂
把几万颗芯片连成一台机器:GPU 服务器/机柜集成、机柜内互联芯片、突破机柜间「铜墙」的光互联、交换网络。一个互联端口降速就能拖住整个训练任务。
Leading GPU-server / liquid-cooled rack integrator assembling silicon into deployable AI-factory racks.
Tier-1 AI server + storage integrator shipping full GPU rack systems to hyperscalers + enterprises.
AI servers + Cray supercomputing systems and the orchestration to run them at scale.
Ethernet switching leader for AI back-end fabrics — the merchant alternative to InfiniBand.
In-rack connectivity silicon pure-play (PCIe/CXL retimers + fabric controllers) wiring GPUs to CPUs/memory.
Active Electrical Cables + SerDes connecting GPUs within/between racks; rack-scale connectivity pure-play.
Optical transceivers + silicon photonics connecting servers across the data center (the copper wall).
Optical components / lasers (EMLs) for 1.6T transceivers; named supplier in next-gen interconnect.
Coherent optical / DWDM systems for campus-to-campus data-center interconnect; record backlog.
大模型 —— 基础模型
语言、生物、物理、机器人领域的基础大模型。顶层突破把需求一路向下传导。前沿领跑者多为非上市公司 —— 公开敞口主要通过其算力与云合作方获得。
Owns Gemini + DeepMind + the TPU stack — the cleanest public pure-frontier-model proxy.
Open-weight Llama family + massive in-house AI compute; the public open-model proxy.
Deep OpenAI partnership + in-house models + Azure model hosting — public exposure to frontier models.
应用 —— 价值捕获
价值落地层:Copilot、智能体、自动驾驶,以及企业数据上的应用 AI。估值倍数高于下层 —— 价值取决于 AI 预算份额,而非物理瓶颈。
Copilot across M365/Dynamics + GitHub Copilot — the broadest enterprise AI-app distribution.
Einstein / Agentforce — agentic AI embedded in the dominant CRM workflow.
Now Assist — AI agents automating IT / enterprise service workflows.
AIP operationalizes models against enterprise/government data — an applied-AI deployment platform.
Data + AI app platform (Cortex) where enterprises build/run AI on their own data.
Physical AI — FSD autonomy + Optimus humanoid robotics (Huang’s self-driving + robots example).
Observability for AI apps — the picks-and-shovels of running AI in production.
层级为人工策展 · 价格为公开数据实时(延迟)行情 · 仅供参考 · 非投资建议